Sorry for shouting in the title, but I am fed up with people saying Flash is dying. That it's old technology. That HTML5 is the ultimate replacement. That it shouldn't be allowed to go forward. Come on! Give me a break! It is making me ill. Perhaps we've all just turned into Steve Jobs sycophants, sucked into his 'reality distortion field', repeating what he says because it is the latest fad.
Will Flash lose some market share to HTML5? Yes. Will it die? Not a chance! Is HTML5 the best technology for cross-platform mobile development? Yes! But again, that doesn't mean the demise of Flash is anywhere near.
The only reason anyone is still hollering about this is because Apple still refuses Flash on their mobile devices. Will they forever refuse? For an answer to that, see my BONUS reason below.
(Thanks to Tony Karrer's article "Mobile Learning and the Continuing Death of Flash". First for reviewing Rapid Intake's mobile learning course authoring solution and second for his comments about the 'death of Flash', which, as you'll find out, I disagree with, but I respect Tony a great deal.)
Now this is not an HTML5 bashing article. I love HTML5. At Rapid Intake, HTML5 is our new friend because it has enabled us to create mobile learning software that works on almost any newer smartphone or tablet. Still, our e-learning software relies predominantly on Flash for desktop browser consumption. For good reason.
Don't believe all of the doomsday prophets proclaiming Flash's demise. Here are my five reasons Flash is not dying:
Reason #1: HTML5 is not cross-browser compatible and Flash is
Flash is still the best way to deliver content to desktop browsers. Cross browser compatibility is a huge (yes HUGE) problem. It has been from the start. Let's just take Internet Explorer (and I'm no IE fan). Over 26% of all Internet users use IE6, IE7, or IE8, none of which support HTML5. From the very beginning Flash was a godsend because it would work in almost any browser. If we have to go back to testing everything we create in every single browser for compatibility we've rolled back development efficiency at least 10 years. Flash will continue to be a strong player because you can develop once and know that it will work the same on PCs, Macs, in pretty much any browser with relatively very little testing required. That's just not true for HTML5.
Reason #2: Flash is more than a technology, it's an ecosystem
There are thousands of companies around the globe that have built their business on Flash technology. Thousands of web applications (not to mention general websites) have it at the core. The switching costs will be too great for many if not most.
Reason #3: Flash is more secure than HTML5
Flash played over the web is harder to dig into than an HTML page. On an HTML5 page I can right-click, show source, and starting grabbing whatever source code I want, and go to town. HTML5 is inherently less secure than Flash. On most mobile devices it is more difficult to do this, but if you want to protect your content, Flash has the upper hand.
Reason #4: HTML5 has years to go before it truly competes
HTML5 is great--don't get me wrong. I'm a big fan. We recently announced our mLearning (Mobile Learning) Studio authoring tool that outputs to HTML5 because in the mobile world it is the only technology that IS cross-platform compatible. Still, if you are delivering to a desktop browser, Flash is still hands-down the best delivery mechanism. It offers a richer experience. Yes, you have to have the Flash player, but hey, 98% of all Internet users have it already and if you don't have it, it's a simple download. That's why in our mobile learning authoring tool you can do what we call a joint package, that includes Flash, so that when learners access the same course via a desktop tool, it shows Flash. From a mobile device it shows HTML5 (try some samples on your desktop browser and mobile devices).
Reason #5: Adobe will make Flash more competitive
Adobe has a lot of resources and though they are slow and sometimes aggravatingly so, they'll get their act together and fix Flash's problems, making it easier and easier for mobile devices to support Flash. Think of it like a large company that declared bankruptcy. They hardly ever die. They restructure and come back stronger. That's what is happening to the Flash technology.
BONUS--Reason #6: Apple will eventually support Flash
Whoah...did you just hear me say that? Okay, I know I'm going out on a limb here, but when I led a panel at eLearning DevCon 2010 on the Flash vs HTML5 debate, five out the six panelists agreed by the end of the discussion that there was a very high probability that Apple would eventually support Flash. Why? In a word: Google. Android is taking market share like nobody's business from Apple and eventually Apple will capitulate because one of the main reasons Android is attractive is because it supports Flash. As a side note, I don't wish any ill will on Steve Jobs, but if his health problems force him out of the CEO seat and perhaps on to the next world sooner than later, which is not out of the question, Apple's support of Flash is even more likely.
Update Feb 10: Look at the comparison charts between the iPad, Motorola Xoom, HP Touchpad, and Blackberry Playbook. Only one of them doesn't support Flash. That's market pressure Apple will not be able to ignore.
Do you think I'm up in the night about all of this? Do you agree and there are there reasons I'm missing? I"d love to hear your comments.
Also see: Why and What is HTML5?
15 comments:
I completely agree. There is no way in the world that Adobe is going to let Flash die. They will adapt and come up with new ways to compete.
@Andrew Not to compare Microsoft and Adobe too closely, but they share some similarities: they both had entrenched market positions and face new competition. Microsoft had Windows Vista and Adobe has Flash. Windows faced (is facing) stiff competition from Mac OS. Flash is facing it from HTML5. Everyone said Windows was going to be dead. Microsoft finally saw the light and got it mostly right in Windows 7 and while Mac continues to make inroads, Windows has a secure future (on the desktop anyway...certainly not on mobile devices in its current form). I think Adobe has already seen the light and is making needed adjustments.
I don't see Anroids increasing market share as much of an argument. (Not to mention market share is only one measure of success, revenue and profit is another, and arguably more important.) But getting back to your point that more Androids = more Flash relevance. That is like saying all of the "flex fuel" vehicles GMC pumped out over the last few years would result in ethanol being our fuel of choice. When in fact that technology seems like it will be leap-frogged by electric plug-in and hybrid technology. Just because the capability exists, doesn't mean that capability will thrive and grow.
Finally someone else that agrees the world will not be marching foward holding i-pads over their heads touting "glory to HTML 5 and death to Flash". You also won't find me leading a pack of Flash supporters either! LOL!
One of the first realities we all need to see is that these are two very distict (and seperate) technologies. HTML is just that a mark-up language; while Flash already incorporates several abilities and features including it's own programming language - something a markup language will never have!
@Matt You may be right. However, there is a fundamental difference in the comparison you are making with Flash versus traditional gas powered vehicles: it is too difficult for the entrenched mechanics and infrastructure that support gas-powered vehicles to change quickly enough to counter the new assault on its market position. Software and car technology don't change at the same rate. Software can change much faster, and I think the rate at which Adobe will fix its problems will still leave it a major market share holder even as HTML5 takes some market share. Again, I'm not saying it won't lose market share. I'm saying it's not going to die.
Also, it's not just Android that is supporting Flash. Right now it is Android, Blackberry, and WebOS (HP). Also, the machines are getting more capable of handling Flash at the same time Adobe is making it easier to play Flash on mobile devices.
It is all things combined, not just support from major players, that suggest to me that Flash still has a very vibrant future on the desktop and on mobile devices.
@Anonymous You could argue that HTML5 has a programming language because Javascript is considered part of the HTML5 solution.
True about JS being part of the HTML 5 solution (I forgot about that - I still say JS is sperate though...but thats a whole other discussion LOL!
I guess then one could argue that Flash also includes JS too, since you can use AS to "talk" to other languages...databases...etc...(LOL!)
Great post - gets everyone fired up these days! I'm just glad may have options; it always leads to creativity how they get used.
Thank you for shouting out! Long live Flash! I can not tell you how many iPads I have seen not being used by business people. Flash has helped eLearning make great advances. What was the name of that Flash gaming site Game Stop purchased? Krongregate.com I can not understand the Apple lovers who scream about open source but support Apple's exclusive behavior? It does not make sense. It is not consistent...something Flash is, always.
@Jon Yes, consistency is huge. I do have to admit that so far we've seen excellent consistency on HTML5 in our mobile learning solution. I think HTML5 is great. It is so far a beautiful solution for mobile learning development cross-platform. Still, it means everyone has to be on the same or minimum browser version, which is one of the big things Flash was able to eliminate to effectively. Thanks for the comment!
You're wrong. On all counts. Flash is dying. Apple will never support it because they don't control it. Adobe will switch to developing tools to make HTML5. Flash is all the things you say - more secure, cross browser etc. You're not wrong about those, but you are wrong that means it's not dying. The world is changing and flash is a dinosaur. Unless the dinosaur changes it dies.
I'm currently a studying design & technology, and just had a HTML5 course right after having 2 month with Flash. As I am more design oriented, I have to say, that I find it much more easier and convenient to deal with Flash, than re-testing HTML5 on every browser possible. I hope Apple will support Flash eventually, because let's face it: Flash is a great tool for game developing and presentations and I can make a simple presentation with embedded music much faster on Flash, than on HTML5.
Now I'm not so sure...http://shoutout.rapidintake.com/2011/02/5-reasons-flash-is-not-dyinggive-me.html
Now I'm not so sure
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/exclusive-adobe-ceases-development-on-mobile-browser-flash-refocuses-efforts-on-html5-updated/19226
The mobile browser plugin is dead.
Who didn't see that one coming? Most flash websites were/are not built with mobile devices in mind.
Adobe AIR is now at version 3. This is where things are going. You can package your Flash project as an Android, iOS, Win or Mac application using the same code.
I currently build Flash websites and will continue to do so. When a client wants mobile device support, I build them on an Adobe AIR app.
Adobe AIR supports the camera, accelerometer, GPS, etc. and can really enhance your Flash project.
I'm sorry but Flash IS dying. Adobe's recent news that they will stop supporting the mobile version of Flash player only confirms that. Not even once has a proprietary system survived on the Internet. Most of us will still remember RealPlayer, Windows Media Player plugins, ActiveX controls, .... none of them ever survived and none of them ever will. Even now, in 2011, Flash still makes all of my browsers crash, it still consumes way too much battery and contains lots of security holes. Like all plugins did and will.
Flash's main reasons of existance now are video and ads - two things which can perfecly be done in HTML5. And sure, it will still take a while, but starting a *new* project which is fully Flash-based is simply arrogant and no more than closing your eyes for the truth.
Apple will never, EVER support Flash, and I am convinced Google will sooner or later drop the Flash Player as well. I don't see why you would use AIR either: unless you're making some extremely graphically intense app (which means you should go native), you can do the exact same thing with something like html5 + phonegap.
If you've closely collaborated with Adobe before, then you'll know it's their arrogance that has killed them.
I agree that with the latest developments (Adobe removing support for Flash on mobile devices), HTML5 wins on mobile devices. We saw that possibility, which is why we built mLearning Studio to publish to HTML5. That said, Flash still has a tremendous marketshare and life on desktop browsers. That's where a lot of people don't draw the distinction. Flash may be dead on mobile browsers, but it certainly isn't on desktop browsers. That ecosystem is enormous and HTML5 cannot replace Flash on the desktop yet. There are still many valid reasons Flash is the best platform for e-learning on the desktop. HTML5 does look like a clear win for mobile devices. That's precisely why we built mLearning Studio to publish to HTML5 on mobile devices and Flash on desktop browsers.
My favorite little quote someone said about this was written in a news article when Adobe made the announcement, "Somewhere Steve Jobs is smiling." :)
Post a Comment